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2013-01-24 - Colloque/Article dans les actes avec comité de lecture - Anglais - 21 page(s)

Brocorens Patrick , "Understanding the Decline of global Oil exports" in 1er Congrès interdisciplinaire du développement durable, quelle transition pour nos sociétés ?, Namur, Belgique, 2013

  • Codes CREF : Recherche énergétique (DI2290), Prospective générale (DI4423)
  • Unités de recherche UMONS : Chimie des matériaux nouveaux (S817)
  • Instituts UMONS : Institut des Sciences et du Management des Risques (Risques)

Abstract(s) :

(Anglais) In this study, we use indicators such as the exports-to-production ratio, and the difference between the growth rate of oil exports and the growth rate of oil production, to characterize the dynamics that lead to a decline of oil exports. Many countries have passed their peak of oil exports, and the world as well, in 2005. The indicators presented here show that the deterioration of the fundamentals is a long term dynamics, thus meaning that global oil export will likely continue declining, though temporary rebounds can occur. These evolutions are then related to recent events such as the Arab Spring, the rise of oil prices on international markets, and the current economic crises. The peaking of world oil exports is a recent and significant turning point, though still largely ignored, but its implications for both oilimporting and oil-exporting countries are vast.